Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
