Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
